Predictive modelling & risk analytics
Design predictive models with quantified uncertainty for confident decisions.
We align models to business decisions so leaders can act on risk signals with confidence.
Turning uncertainty into confident decisions
Bayesian AI is a boutique consultancy that turns complex data into practical, defensible decisions. We provide personalised analytics, data science, AI, and statistical support tailored to each engagement.
- Peer-reviewed analytics that survives methodology scrutiny.
- Governance-ready AI deployment for regulated industries.
- Senior actuarial depth without the big-four overhead.
“I would recommend Peter/Bayesian after working with him on a project requiring some analysis and modelling. We were extremely happy with the speed, communication and how easy it was to work with him. He was extremely responsive and catered to our needs for quick analysis turn around, and clarifications of statistical methodology to push our work to publication.”
Dr Stuart Jackson·Port Macquarie Base Hospital
About
A partner for leaders who need defensible analytics
Senior expertise, lean teams, and communication that lands with executives and auditors.
Why teams engage us
At Bayesian AI, we specialise in turning complex data into practical, defensible decisions. As a boutique consultancy, we provide personalised analytics, data science, AI, and statistical support tailored to each client and context.
From machine learning and predictive modelling to AI-powered research and reporting, our work blends technical depth with practical impact. Our team has supported published medical research and delivered AI projects that drive measurable outcomes across healthcare, government, and professional services.
How to get started
If you are designing a study, working with challenging datasets, building predictive models, or strengthening AI governance, Bayesian AI can help you move from analysis to decisions with confidence.
Engagements typically run 2–8 weeks. We work with a small number of clients at a time.
Meet Peter Morian
An actuary and data scientist who brings governance-focused analytics to every engagement.
Peter Morian (BActSt BEc MDS AIAA GAICD) is an experienced actuary and data scientist, and the founder of Bayesian AI, an advanced analytics consultancy specialising in AI-driven insights for healthcare, government, and professional services.
Combining actuarial precision with modern data science, Peter helps organisations make better decisions through predictive modelling, automation, and risk analytics. He has delivered statistical support for peer reviewed medical research, developed intelligent analytics platforms, and advised on AI governance and ethical data use.
Beyond consulting, Peter serves on boards and advisory groups, including the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons Advisory Group on AI in Surgery and the Experience Life Board. He brings technical depth and board-level insight to help organisations adopt AI responsibly and for long-term impact.
Services
What we deliver
Structured engagements with clear governance and communication.
AI governance & assurance
Set guardrails, evaluation protocols, and documentation for responsible AI adoption.
Our governance packs are designed to stand up to audit, board, and regulator scrutiny.
Automation & data products
Build automation, dashboards, and data products that reduce manual reporting.
Each workflow is built for reliability, maintainability, and measurable time savings.
Research analytics support
Provide study design, peer review support, and publication-ready analysis.
We help teams produce defensible findings that are clear to reviewers and stakeholders.
Industries
Medicine and clinical research
Evidence and analytics for clinical and research teams.
- Clinical research and outcomes analysis
- Decision support and methodology review
Professional services
Analytics that improve client delivery and product quality.
- Analytics products and reporting
- Risk, compliance, and optimisation
Legal
Analytics and AI solutions for law firms and in-house legal teams.
- Contract review and document automation.
- Private in-house AI model implementation.
Government and public sector
Support for programs that face public and audit scrutiny.
- Forecasting and planning
- Performance measurement and evaluation
Property and Construction
Feasibility and risk modelling for developers making high-stakes capital decisions.
- Development feasibility modelling.
- Sensitivity and scenario analysis.
What you get
Decision brief and success measures
Defines decisions, KPIs, and acceptance criteria before delivery begins.
Transparent assumptions and limitations
Summarises uncertainty, traceability, and sensitivities for stakeholders.
Stakeholder ready report or dashboard
Clear outputs tailored to executives, operators, and boards.
Documentation suitable for governance and audit
Methodology, data lineage, and controls captured for assurance.
Projects
Selected engagements, testimonials, and publications
Examples of project outcomes and client feedback across high-stakes work.
Testimonials
“I would recommend Peter/Bayesian after working with him on a project requiring some analysis and modelling. We were extremely happy with the speed, communication and how easy it was to work with him. He was extremely responsive and catered to our needs for quick analysis turn around, and clarifications of statistical methodology to push our work to publication.”
Dr Stuart Jackson
Port Macquarie Base Hospital
Healthcare
“The analysis was rigorous, fast, and communicated in terms we could actually use. Exactly what we needed.”
Dr Phillip Anthony
Campbelltown Hospital
Healthcare
“We were sitting on a significant capital decision with a lot of moving parts. Bayesian AI built a feasibility model that gave us a clear view of the risks and where our assumptions were sensitive. It gave us the confidence to proceed.”
Jasta Constructions
Property
Selected engagements
Clinical trial decision support
Problem: A research team needed to prioritise trial arms with limited data.
Approach: Built Bayesian models to quantify uncertainty and run scenarios with clinicians.
Outcome: Provided publication-ready analysis that supported go/no-go choices and reduced rework before ethics review.
Responsible AI rollout
Problem: A services firm wanted to adopt generative AI while meeting governance obligations.
Approach: Defined guardrails, evaluation protocols, and lightweight assurance artefacts.
Outcome: Delivered a board-ready governance pack, reduced manual reporting, and improved confidence in AI usage.
Development Feasibility Modelling
Problem: A residential developer needed confidence in project viability before committing significant capital.
Approach: Built a feasibility model quantifying key risks and sensitivities across cost, revenue, and timing assumptions.
Outcome: Gave decision-makers a defensible basis to proceed. The project has performed in line with projections.
Publications
BJU
Greenlight laser prostatectomy: which goggles are best for visualising haematuria accurately?
View on PubMed →FAQ
Straight answers, no buzzwords
Clear guidance on fit, governance, and how we deliver.
How quickly can you turn around an engagement?
Most projects are scoped and underway within a week. Turnaround depends on complexity, but we consistently deliver faster than in-house teams with large queues.
How are you different from a university statistician or large consulting firm?
You get senior-level expertise on every engagement, not a graduate analyst. We are also smaller and faster than large firms, without the overhead cost.
What is the minimum engagement size?
We work with clients from single-project engagements through to ongoing retainers. Get in touch and we can scope something appropriate.
How do you protect sensitive data?
We align with your security requirements, minimise data movement, and can implement private in-house AI models that keep all data within your infrastructure.
Can you support peer reviewed publication work?
Yes. We have provided statistical support for research published in peer reviewed journals and can collaborate directly with research teams and reviewers.